Promoted Brighton have started this season’s Championship on fire and as a result are one of only two sides yet to be defeated.
That run also sees them with five wins from their opening six and a 100% record away from home – impressive stuff indeed.
Leicester, their more illustrious hosts for Saturday afternoon’s clash at the King Power Stadium, have had a somewhat less auspicious – and less expected – beginning to their campaign, with the number two in each of their win, draw and loss columns.
And even more frustrating for the players, manager Sven-Goran Eriksson and their fans is the fact that those pair of reverses have come on their own patch – which gives the impression that the pressure is getting to them.
Now, with the basic information already stated and the fact that Brighton are 5/2 to win the game, I’m sure you’ve figured out who I consider better value to come out on top.
At odds of 5/2, a winning £25 free bet, available to new customers who sign up for a bwin account, on this outcome would return £87.50.
However, this is no straightforward match and the reasoning I’ll now put forward could put a spanner in the works.
Leicester seem to have gotten their act together since those two defeats at home. They have gone four unbeaten, scoring ten goals and inflicting a first reverse of the season on second-placed Southampton.
With Eriksson’s position potentially coming under threat if his side’s fortunes do not continue to improve, this could be viewed as a must-win match for the Swede and the Foxes are bwin’s 21/20 favourites to triumph, with the draw at 27/10.
However, even if the hosts do pull a victory out of the bag, it is unlikely to be pretty. Expect a low-scoring, tight encounter and under 2.5 goals is perhaps the best selection of the lot at 4/5.
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City to Continue Struggle at Elland Road
Leeds’ slow starts gives encouragement to those betting on City to lead at half time
but eventually lose at odds of 22/1.
This season has not been good to Bristol City so far. With just one win from six
league games, the Robins have only scored four so far and boss Keith Millen’s refusal
to play more than one striker looks set to continue.
The City manager defended his tactics following last weeks 1-0 loss to Brighton at
Ashton Gate and is more than likely to persist with the one pronged attack. It is for
this reason that Bristol City find themselves priced at 83/20 to win at Elland Road
against a Leeds United side that has blown hot and cold so far this year.
However, it may not be quite as clear-cut as that due to Leeds’ appalling defensive
record. The Whites have failed to keep a clean sheet so far this season and appear
to have adopted the score more than you approach. While being entertaining, it
has led to mixed results this year as Leeds have won 2, drawn 1 and lost 3 in the
Championship so far. This makes the odds of 17/25 a worthwhile yet risky bet with a
draw priced at 12/5.
The key statistic to betting on this fixture lies in the goals scored with Leeds’ six
league fixtures so far averaging 3.66 goals per game. It’s also quite possible that
Bristol’s scoring struggles could come to an end against a defence that is at best
unsettled. Therefore, more than 2.5 goals at 11/4 is reasonable bet with more than 3.5
goals also worth a go priced at 31/20.
For those expecting even more goals, betting on exactly 4 goals or 5 or more will see
you receive odds of 4/1. Using the free £25 you receive for joining bwin on this bet
would see a return of £125 should it be successful.
Finally, Leeds have shown a tendency to be slow out of the blocks this year and have
found themselves ahead just twice at half time in their eight competitive games this
year. Of the six games that they weren’t in front in at half time, they’ve managed
to turn three around into victories. This makes the 22/1 odds of Bristol City/Leeds
United in the Halftime/Fulltime market a very worthwhile outside bet.
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League 2 odds.
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