Colombia’s fine defensive record points to a win to nil over Venezuela in Barranquilla tomorrow morning.
Venezuela might have secured a shock 1-0 win over Argentina in their last World Cup qualifier but they are still expected to come away with nothing from a visit to Colombia tomorrow.
The fourth-best team at the 2011 Copa America are priced at 23/4 to make it two World Cup 2014 qualifier wins in a row, with the home side 53/100 favourites to pick up all three points and the draw priced at 11/4.
However, Cesar Farias’ team should not be disregarded by punters too readily, not least because their win over Argentina is hardly an isolated incident.
The Copa America saw Venezuela draw with Brazil in the group stages and beat Chile in the quarter-finals, while they also have a good recent record against their opponents tomorrow.
La Vinotinto have won two of the last four meetings between the two sides, including a victory away from home in August 2009.
As such, there could yet be value in backing a draw or Venezuela success in the double chance market at odds of 29/20.
However, Colombia have continued the good form they showed in the Copa America – where they reached the quarter-finals before losing to beaten finalists Peru – and should have enough to win the game, even without the injured Falcao.
Los Cafeteros have won their three games since their defeat to Peru and have also continued to show impressive defensive resilience.
Colombia have now kept clean sheets in six of their last eight matches, and with Venezuela scoring just four times in their last six outings the home side look good for another shut-out at the very least.
Odds of 22/25 are available on Venezuela failing to score against Colombia, while a win to nil also looks a good option at odds of 5/4.
Leonel Alvarez’s team have scored twice in four of their last five fixtures, which suggests they have enough firepower to breach a Venezuelan defence which El Salvador, Honduras, Guinea and Ecuador have all scored against in recent matches.
A successful £25 free bet on Colombia to win to nil would return £56.25, with the free bet available to new customers who sign up for a bwin account.
Meanwhile, with Falcao out, Alvarez could turn to Teo Gutierrez for goals.
The 26-year-old was born in Barranquilla, scene of this evening’s match, and started his career at Barranquilla FC too, meaning he will be well supported and confident in his surroundings.
He is in good form for his country as well, scoring two goals in Colombia’s friendly with Honduras in September and bagging another in his country’s match with Jamaica later that month.
As such, he looks worth backing to score at any time against Venezuela at odds of evens.
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