Odds: Germany: 31/50, The Draw: 11/4, England: 9/2
One of international football’s most fierce rivalries is renewed in Berlin this weekend and the odds gurus are, unsurprisingly, on the side of the world champions.
However, a striking trend that runs through the heart of 21st century Germany v England meetings suggests backing the visitors will turn a big profit.
True, wins over Brazil and France are the sum total of notable victories the Three Lions have mustered against elite international outfits since Roy Hodgson took the reigns and one defeat to the so-called ‘Old Enemy’ is also on his CV.
But as Euro 2016 draws ever closer, England will fly in the face of their poor recent record against heavyweight nations and duly proliferate dreams of continental glory amongst their supporters by defeating the World Cup winners on their own doorstep.
Win, Lose or Draw
Germany versus England tends to favour the away team.
It’s a bizarre paradigm to grasp given the alleged vitriol that courses between both sets of fans. What could be worse than to see such a bitter foe arrive in the nation’s capital, claim the spoils then depart, shrouded in smugness at having achieved such a feat?
Few fates are more painstaking for a patriotic football supporter, but it’s one the England and Germany faithful have grown accustomed to.
Each of the previous five face offs contested in either country have ended with the visiting side bagging the laurels, with England winning on both previous forays into Die Mannschaft territory.
Indeed, the Three Lions’ 5-1 shellacking of the natives in Munich back in 2001 is arguably their greatest victory since the 1966 World Cup final. Shame it only came in a World Cup qualifier.
They arrive for this friendly in scintillating form too; since going down 2-1 to Uruguay in the 2014 World Cup, England have won a staggering 13 of 17 matches and drawn three of the remaining four.
Just seven goals have been shipped across this spell and the only team capable of overcoming Hodgson’s troops in this period was reigning European champions Spain. Even then La Roja required a Mario Gaspar wonder goal 72 minutes in to break through the ironclad rearguard.
Following the World Cup triumph, Germany have been beaten five times, with Poland, the USA and Republic of Ireland among their vanquishers.
They’ve prevailed in just 50% of the home fixtures since reigning supreme in Brazil and are ripe for another setback.
Recommended bet: England to win @ 9/2
Both teams tend to score when these two meet and there’s never been a match up held in Germany in which either side has failed to score. There’s been a 3-3, a 3-6 and a 1-5 played out between the duo in Deutschland.
Only one of the hosts’ eight home games since their World Cup conquest has fallen below the 2.5-goal line, while the Three Lions have landed overs backers three winning bets across their last seven games, despite keeping five clean sheets in that time.
Recommended bet: Over 2.5 goals @ 91/100
Who’s going to score?
In each of the previous three dust ups, a centre-back has got on the scoresheet, notching four of the nine scored across that spell in total.
There’s big prices on the German defenders bagging here, namely the 8/1 about Mats Hummels any time, but there’s even more money to be made siding with an English stopper (after all, three of the aforementioned four strikes were registered by Three Lions rearguard marshals).
Recommended bet: Chris Smalling to score any time @ 12/1
England have been ahead at half-time and full-time in four of their previous five fixtures, while Germany have gone in level or behind in the last seven they’ve failed to win.
Recommended bet: England HT/FT @ 33/4