England may be 2/5 favourites for Scotland’s visit to Wembley – with the visitors an optimistic 29/4 to triumph and a draw 13/4 – but they aren’t coming into the match in ruthless form, having won just three of their last nine outings.
Under Gordon Strachan the Scots have a better recent win ratio than their hosts, with victories in two of the four games under his stewardship and they’ve been relatively resolute when defeated too, shipping only two goals in losses to Serbia and a Gareth Bale-inspired Wales.
Although there was much hand-wringing over the benignity of their attack during the era of Strachan’s predecessor Craig Levein, the Scottish defence was stingy for the entirety of the 2012/13 campaign – conceding no more than twice in any of their 10 outings – so punters fancying they’ll face a mauling from the Three Lions may need to check themselves before they wreck themselves.
Under 2.5 goals can be backed at 87/100 and given the visitors have kept nations of the ilk of Belgium and Serbia to a 2-0 scoreline it’s worth opting for that price over the 17/50 about under 3.5 goals in the fixture, especially since the only sides to allow Roy Hodgson’s men more than two goals in their last 13 outings were San Marino and Moldova.
Unsurprisingly given the amount of glee the Scottish have taken from winning this fixture against an England side usually rated as their superiors in the past, results have been close, with 17 matches elapsing since a renewal was won by more than two goals.
England’s recent draw against Brazil – who subsequently conquered Spain to win the Confederations Cup –suggests that they have the guile to see off an inexperienced Scottish squad of whom 16 members have represented their nation on less than 10 occasions, but given the historically tight nature of these fixtures Bwin’s 11/5 about a home win in a game featuring less than 2.5 goals looks the wager.