There’s nothing like a major international tourny to throw up great betting events, with Euro 2016’s top-scorer market arguably the best value bwin.com have on offer, reminiscent of a Cheltenham Festival handicap, considering favourite Thomas Muller comes in at a whopping 7/1.
Mario Gotze’s claims were put forward on these pages recently, and while the Germany number nine is value at twice Muller’s odds, the question mark over whether he’s an automatic first-team starter for the world champions hovers over this bet.
Conversely, 2010 World Cup Golden Boot winner Muller, who was only beaten to the same prize two years ago by a single James Rodriguez strike, will surely start, take penalties and get goals, as he has 31 times in 70 Die Mannschaft outings. Can you believe he’s only 26?
Muller has to factor into a sound-money strategy based on previous and current form, with 36 goals bagged for club and country in the season just past, but two players who finished their campaigns in even better shape look juicy prices among the outsiders.
Not many pundits are backing Wales to finish second in a pool containing England, Russia and Slovakia, although it’s hardly a ‘Group of Death’.
If Chris Coleman’s men do take Group B’s runners-up spot they’ll likely face either Hungary, Iceland or Austria, all beatable, meaning Real Madrid’s Gareth Bale could realistically turn out five times in France.
Bale has scored eight times in 11 internationals since the start of 2014, including the only goal in a 1-0 qualifying win against Belgium, bwin.com’s top-price 11/1 fifth-favourites to win the 24-team tournament.
The 26-year-old has bagged four in his last seven games for Los Blancos, and was Madrid’s most effective player in their 1-0 win over Manchester City in the Champions League semi-final second leg.
If he repeats his 2014 Champions League final heroics against Atletico Madrid in next week’s rerun there won’t be a more confident figure heading to France this summer. At 33/1, he warrants a second look.
Manchester United’s Anthony Martial also comes in at 33/1, and while his presence in this cheat sheet may lead some to suspect a sacrifice to the great headline god SEO, some merit for including the 20-year-old may be found.
Finishing the season with four goals in his last five games, United’s best outfield player by a very long street may yet find gametime plentiful back home.
Antoine Griezmann’s place up front seems assured, but after their respective Premier League campaigns it would be strange to see Arsenal’s Olivier Giroud still ahead of Martial in France’s pecking order, while Mexico-based Andre Pierre-Gignac appears the next cab off the rank.
With such fluxion in France’s forward line, Martial looks a good bet to capitalise for the hosts who, as 10/3 co-favourites, will be expected to go deep into the tournament.
Euro 2016 top-scorer cheat sheet
Thomas Muller @ 7/1
Gareth Bale @ 33/1
Anthony Martial @ 33/1