Underdogs Belgium go into this evening’s match against Germany knowing that they have to match or better Turkey’s result against Azerbaijan to secure second spot in Group A.
However, the Germans have motivation of their own despite having already qualified for the tournament, with Mario Gomez and Thomas Müller both revealing a determination among players to make it ten qualification victories in a row.
Given they are going into the match with such a positive mindset it is difficult to see anything other than a Germany win and this is reflected by odds of 17/50.
Indeed, the more you look at it the more certain a Belgian defeat appears.
The sides have met seven times before and Germany have won all seven, with Belgium only managing to score in two of those games.
With this in mind, there appears to be little value in betting on a draw (17/4) or Belgium victory (13/2).
That said, there is some hope for Belgium in that Germany have struggled to prevent opposition sides from scoring of late, with at least one goal conceded in each of their last eight games.
It is therefore more advisable to bet on Belgium scoring in the match (31/50) than it is to bet on Germany keeping a clean sheet (23/20).
Indeed, the match as a whole should be a high-scoring affair given the goal records of the two teams during qualifying.
Games involving Germany have averaged 4.11 goals, while games involving Belgium have averaged 3.56.
This suggests that the best bet could be on the game to have more than 3.5 goals at odds of 6/5.
A successful £25 free bet on there to be at least four goals in the match would return £55, with the free bet available to new customers who sign up for a bwin account.
Alternatively, punters could go for there to be more than 2.5 goals in the second half at odds of 3/4.
This tip is based on second halves in seven out of the nine Euro 2012 qualification matches involving Germany containing at least two goals, in addition to five out of nine of Belgium’s.
But however many goals there are in the match, the sad fact for Belgium is that it is unlikely to translate into the away victory they appear to need to make it through to the play-offs.
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