Croatia have been in a seemingly unassailable winning position against Turkey before.
It was the quarter-final stage of Euro 2008. The game finished 0-0 after 90 minutes and, with seconds remaining in extra time, Ivan Klasnic looked to have won it for Slaven Bilic’s team when he scored with a header.
But Turkey came back and equalised with the last kick of the game before going on to win the penalty shoot-out.
This time though, it will surely be different.
Going into the second leg of their Euro 2012 qualifier with Turkey in Zagreb with a 3-0 cushion established in Istanbul on Friday, Croatia are priced at 1/100 to finish the job and make it through to Euro 2012 in Poland and Ukraine.
This leaves Turkey 20/1 long shots to overturn the three-goal deficit and make it through.
Even Turkey boss Guus Hiddink has thrown in the towel, saying “it’s difficult, almost impossible to qualify”, and with Emre Belozoglu, Hakan Balta, Sabri Sarıoglu and Arda Turan all suspended for the second leg, Croatia look primed to extend their lead on the night.
The home side are available at 67/100 to record another win, with the draw at 5/2 and a Turkey success at 17/4 in bwin’s 3Way football betting market.
Croatia’s chances look good considering they have won each of their last four home games, scoring at least twice in the process.
Meanwhile, Turkey have failed to score in four of their last five away internationals, losing three and drawing the remaining two.
This points towards a 2-0 win for Croatia, which is attractively priced at 25/4.
But perhaps the safest bet would be on there being more goals in the second half than there are in the first.
Both Croatia and Turkey scored more goals after the interval than they did before the break during the group stages of their qualification campaign.
And Croatia conceded more in the second half of their games as well, with Turkey letting in exactly as many after the break as they did before the half time whistle.
Although the first leg of the match between the two sides went against this trend – with Croatia having been two up inside 33 minutes – back things to return to normal this evening at odds of 23/20.
A successful £25 free bet on more goals to be scored in the second half than the first would return £53.75, with the free bet available to new customers who sign up for a bwin account.
New customers can register here to claim their free £25 bet or click here to see all our Euro 2012 qualifier odds.
Follow us on Twitter @bwinbetting