England go into tonight’s crucial Euro 2012 qualifier with Wales as short favourites to win and take another big stride towards sealing a place in the finals in Poland and Ukraine next summer.
Fabio Capello’s men are priced at 3/25 to claim all three points in bwin’s 3Way football betting market, with a draw at 7/1 and an away victory at 17/1.
Wales are in buoyant mood following their impressive 2-1 win over Montenegro on Friday, with manager Gary Speed and his players talking up their chances of upsetting England’s qualification bid.
However, the football betting market points to England’s superiority telling in the end, with recent form and the two sides’ head-to-head record indicative of the gulf in class.
Nevertheless, it is worth pointing out that England have not won at Wembley since a 4-0 success on 3rd September last year, with a defeat to France mixed in with draws against Montenegro, Ghana and Switzerland.
This suggests there could yet be value in betting on a draw or Wales win in the double chance market at 5/1, particularly given the attractive odds – a £10 stake would return £60.
But this would be to ignore the fact that Wales have avoided defeat in just one of their four away matches played over the last 12 months and have lost four of their last six games.
Furthermore, they have lost their last three games against an England side who are undefeated in Group G after six matches.
As such, the best bet remains on an England win, although given the odds of 3/25 it is worth looking beyond the 3Way result market to secure greater returns.
One option would be to bet on England keeping a clean sheet given Wales’ failure to score against the Three Lions in their last three fixtures, all of which have taken place in the last seven years.
This bet is available at odds of 53/100.
Another possibility would be to take advantage of odds of 7/20 and bet on England opening the scoring given they have scored a goal in the first half in seven of their last nine matches.
An extension of this would be to bet on England to be winning at half time and full time at 21/50.
A successful £25 free bet on England to be winning at half time and full time, available to new customers who sign up for a bwin account, would return £35.50.
In the goal bet market, Wales’ problems going forward against their hosts this evening, coupled with the fact they have conceded three or more goals against the likes of Switzerland, Ireland and Scotland in recent months, suggest a 3-0 win for the home side could be the best bet at odds of 21/4.
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