Betting on the Europa League should really come with a health warning, considering some of the shock results witnessed in the competition already this season.
Just ask fans of Manchester City and Liverpool, who were expected to see off Dinamo Kiev and Braga respectively in the last 16 but were unceremoniously dumped out.
So it is fair to say that anyone weighing up betting on the quarter-final first leg between Villarreal and Twente at El Madrigal should approach it with some caution.
Most punters will favour the Yellow Submarine, who have won all six of their Europa League matches at home so far this term and are priced at 13/20 to make it seven in a row.
They saw off Bayer Leverkusen – who currently sit second in the Bundesliga – in the previous round and gave Barcelona a run for their money at the weekend in an eventual 1-0 reverse.
The Spanish side also have the tournament’s top scorer in Guiseppe Rossi, who has plundered eight goals already in their run to the last eight.
A successful £10 bet on the former Manchester United striker to break the deadlock on Thursday night would return £45 at odds of 7/2.
However, it would be foolhardy to write off Twente, who were famously guided to the Dutch title last season by ex-England boss Steve McClaren.
They were too strong for 2008 Europa League winners Zenit St Petersburg in the last 16 and replaced PSV at the summit of the Eredivisie last Sunday by beating them 2-0.
When you add in the fact that they held Tottenham and Inter Milan at home in the Champions League group stages, suddenly betting odds of 15/4 on them to take a lead back to the Netherlands may seem tempting.
Villarreal will be wary of this threat but their natural instinct is always to attack, so perhaps the smart money might be on over 2.5 goals being scored, which is priced at 9/10.
Alternatively, it might be worth backing Twente to hold out until the interval before the hosts’ superior class tells, as the draw/Villarreal selection in the half-time/full-time market at bwin is available at 17/5.
A successful £10 stake on Villarreal to beat Twente 2-1 would return £85. New customers can register here to claim a free £25 bet.