Far from imperious when travelling with their passports and Louis Vuitton overnight bags in tow, Benfica’s attempts to defend a one-goal Europa League semi-final lead at Juventus will end in despair.
Despite their domestic dominance and dead-bolted defence, many of the Eagles’ nights have been restless in the run up to this second leg Italian sojourn courtesy of Carlos Tevez’s away goal in the Estadio da Luz.
The Argentine ended a five-year continental goal drought last week to ensure the Old Lady need only win 1-0 in the return fixture to ensure progression and given Benfica’s extensively covered Euro toils, such a scoreline is well worth punting on.
At 11/2, those supporting this outcome are in line for a sizeable payday and with bwin offering money back on this market (as well as a range of goalscorer bets) if a side takes the lead and fails to win, there’s a solid insurance policy in place should it fail to cop.
There’s more than enough suggesting that the money back special won’t be required to salvage the backers’ bacon, though, read on to find out why the second instalment of this semi-final will finish 1-0.
Benfica have been bested in 10 of their 13 trips to Italy.
The Portuguese champions are well accustomed to the taste of defeat when touring the kingdom of calcio, with just about every Serie A superstar recording victories over them in the first decade of this century.
Inter, AC Milan and Napoli are among the big names to get the better of Lisbon’s elite inside the last ten years, all doing so via a one-goal margin.
Antonio Conte’s Italian champions-to-be have prevailed in 16 of their last 17 home games.
The Juventus Stadium (who said hiring that crack ground-naming team was a waste of money?) is as formidable a stronghold as they come.
No visitor has claimed the spoils since the season began and every Serie A visitor to step inside has been slain.
Three of the Old Lady’s last seven at base camp have ended 1-0.
As far as correct score consistency goes, this is a fairly overwhelming percentage.
Also, there’s been a one-goal deficit separating the sides in each of their previous four Europa League encounters, the scoreboard at the final whistle in the first two outings comprising this quartet reading 1-0.
