Liverpool’s extremely lucky win at home to Ludogorets in the Champions League back in September, plus their dreadful form since, means Brendan Rodgers’ side rank as terrible favourites at evens to get their European campaign back on track in Bulgaria.
Indeed, the stats below strongly indicate that the value bet to be on at the Ludogorets Arena is the hosts to nil at 19/4.
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The case for Ludogorets
Ludogorets have won each of their past three home matches to nil, including against fellow Group B competitors Basel, who had seen off Liverpool without being breached in their previous Champions League clash.
Georgi Dermendzhiev’s samba-infused outfit have only conceded five goals at their base in 13 matches this term (two of those were against Real Madrid), keeping nine clean sheets and besting their opponents in eight of those fixtures.
Over their last five fixtures, only domestic rivals Haskovo have managed to sneak a goal past Ludogorets, and that momentary lapse was quickly remedied by the Eagles (Bulgaria’s answer to Crystal Palace?), who ran out 3-1 winners.
The case against Liverpool
Liverpool have lost each of their past three fixtures on the road and have only scored once during that run, in the limp 3-1 loss at Palace last time out.
Real Madrid, Newcastle and Basel have all welcomed Liverpool over their last five away fixtures and sent them home in defeat, with Rodgers’ men failing to register in any of those games.
The fact that the Reds have lost four matches in a row has been well trailed in recent days, but warrants repeating nonetheless.
While it is true that Liverpool have had to deal with the might of Los Blancos twice in the past month, they’ve now gone 270 minutes in the continent’s premier competition without finding the net.