A deluge of stats toll the Champions League death knell for Real Madrid, but if asked to choose who was the better bet to qualify for the semi-finals: Real at 17/20 or Wolfsburg at 95/100, who would seriously pick the Germans?
Los Blancos trail the Bundesliga middleweights 2-0 ahead of the second leg of their quarter final tie, but a price of 1/5 to prevail in the second instalment of their last-eight affair denotes their enormous superiority.
This gross imbalance in quality serves to undermine statistical nuggets such as Real haven’t overturned a first-leg deficit in Europe since 2001/02 and that only two teams in Champions League history have advanced having been 2-0 down going into the concluding segment of their tie.
It’s vital to note the bulk of those sides who failed to climb the 2-0 mountain will have lacked artillery as heavy as Los Merengues’ and the mismatch in standards between opponents was never as evident either.
This alone makes Real a worthy wager, but in order to add flesh to this presupposition skeleton we must consult their home ledger.
Since Barcelona won 4-0 at the Bernabeu, Zinedine Zidane’s troops have won 12 of 13 outings.
In all bar one of these victories they’ve scored at least three goals, while their last four results – 4-0, 4-0, 2-0 and 7-1 – would all be enough to guarantee extra time this evening.
A staggering 62 goals have been notched across the timeframe in question, with just nine given up at the other end.
This frankly astounding form should encourage any sceptical punters to side with the hosts without paying any heed to Wolfsburg’s recent road record.
Die Wolfe were beaten in their previous pair of away matches without scoring, contributing to a run of five losses in eight outings and two of the past three reverses came by margins weighty enough to result in ejection in the current scenario.
At 11/10 to overcome a two-goal handicap and win, Real rate as excellent value for those looking to back the hosts but don’t fancy their duly deserved, odds-on progression price.