Manchester City look extremely well placed to pick up their first ever Champions League win against Villarreal at the Etihad Stadium tomorrow, suggesting there is little value in the odds of 9/1 offered for an away victory or those of 17/4 on a draw.
The Citizens have not got off to the best of starts in Europe’s elite club competition, with a draw at home to Napoli on matchday one followed up with a Bavarian horror show.
Not only did Roberto Mancini’s men get brushed aside by Bayern Munich in a 2-0 defeat, but top earner Carlos Tevez attracted the world’s attention with his alleged refusal to come on as substitute.
But fortunately for Man City, Villarreal are even worse off having lost their first two Group A fixtures to Bayern Munich and Napoli, conceding twice each time and failing to score a goal.
Worrying, the Yellow Submarine’s poor form extends beyond the Champions League with just two victories achieved in their last 11 outings.
City therefore find themselves as heavy 7/25 favourites to pick up all three points from a game they need to win to keep their hopes of qualification alive.
Villarreal’s main trouble has been scoring, particularly away from home, and this is not a good attribute to have with a trip to Eastlands on the horizon.
Juan Carlos Garrido’s men have scored just once on their travels this season, while City have conceded only two goals in six matches at the Etihad Stadium this campaign.
As such, betting on the Citizens to keep a clean sheet at odds of 22/25 looks like a good place to start.
Punters can also get odds of 21/20 on Man City to win to nil, which look safe given the Citizens have scored in every home match so far this season.
However, City’s 1-1 draw with Napoli in their last home Champions League fixture suggests a comfortable victory is unlikely.
They might have averaged more than three goals a game at home in the league, but the 1-1 draw illustrated that impressive league form does not necessarily lead to Champions League success.
With this in mind, a narrow win to nil looks like the best bet, with a 1-0, 2-0 or 3-0 result available at 8/5.
A successful £25 free bet on Man City to win 1-0, 2-0 or 3-0 would return £65, with the free bet available to new customers who sign up for a bwin account.
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