Chelsea entertain Paris Saint-Germain in the second leg of their Champions League last-16 tie, with the odds stacked firmly in favour of the Blues.
The even money about Jose Mourinho’s men prevailing will appeal to many, but the papyrus-thin 2/5 saying they’ll advance to the quarter final is simply too short to get behind.
A 1-1 draw in the first-leg obviously favours the hosts here, but PSG’s 2/1 to advance is a tasty alternative to the paltry offering available on last season’s beaten semi-finalists.
Backing Les Parisiens to qualify at this price with your £30 free bet awarded for opening an account at bwin.com could see savvy punters cop £60 of risk-free profit and there’s ample cause to suggest they’ll be celebrating.
Laurent Blanc’s side may have been ejected from the competition by this foe following a second-leg capitulation last term, but the mechanics behind last season’s meeting were completely different to this one.
A second-half blitz from Les Rouges et Bleus enabled them to post a 3-1 first-leg advantage, which they had to preserve at Stamford Bridge.
Looking at PSG’s star-studded roster, you don’t need to work as a Sky Sports pundit to know that their strengths lie in attack, meaning it was always going to be tough to uphold their two-goal lead, especially with Chelsea going Hail Mary for most of the match.
The Blues finished that game with three forwards on the pitch and only prevailed thanks to an 87th-minute Demba Ba strike after Edinson Cavani had spurned a series of tie-killing opportunities.
This time around, however, Chelsea are going to set up in their preferred defensive guise, aiming to hit the French capital club on the counter-attack.
While this approach undoubtedly suits the hosts, it’s more advantageous to PSG.
With forwards of Cavani, Ezequiel Lavezzi and Zlatan Ibrahimovic’s ilk lining up for the underdogs, it’ll be more surprising if they don’t eradicate the Blues’ solitary away goal.
From a statistical perspective there’s plenty of reasons to back the away team qualifying for the quarter final here.
Just four of the last 15 sides entertaining Les Parisiens’ in this competition have prevailed, while seven have succumbed to their might.
Barcelona, Bastia and Guingamp are the only adversaries from 21 this term to have got the better of Blanc’s travelling troops, with just the latter and Monaco able to prevent them scoring.