Everything history has taught us about David Luiz Moreira Marinho suggests he will play a central role in the outcome of Chelsea’s Champions League round-of-16 tie against Paris Saint-Germain.
Chelsea are 11/5 outsiders to qualify for the quarterfinals after losing 2-1 in the first leg at the Parc des Princes, while PSG are just 7/20 to advance.
Whichever way the tie is settled, the likelihood is that Les Parisiens’ drama magnet former Blues centre-half will play a decisive role.
This is the third year in succession the two sides have met in the knockout stages of Europe’s elite club competition.
Luiz has notched for the French side in each of the previous two, despite representing Chelsea for the first two of those encounters in 2013/14.
Two seasons ago his first-leg own goal threatened to play a part in knocking the Blues out until as late as three minutes from the end of normal time in the return fixture, when Demba Ba bailed out his then teammate.
A year later, he waited until four minutes from time to strike at the right end for PSG taking the tie into an additional 30 minutes that eventually saw the French side come out winners.
He’s 15/2 to notch at Stamford Bridge this time around, while an own goal is 25/1 to either open or close the scoring in the fixture.
Even if he fails to find the net for either his current employers or his previous ones, the part Luiz has played in Les Parisiens’ immensely-stringent rearguard may still prove decisive in the tie.
PSG’s decision to pay £50m for him before the 2014 World Cup seemed questionable, with the Brazilian regularly getting caught laughably out of position at the tournament.
However, Laurent Blanc’s men have conceded a mere 11 times across the 26 games he’s started this term, suggesting he can play a central role in shutting out Chelsea.
A clean sheet for the French champions can be backed at 23/10, while a win to nil for the visitors is a 17/5 shot.