There are two main camps when it comes to football betting. There are the results-orientated bunch and the value-orientated bunch.
The former group state that a winning bet is value at whatever price because it is a winner – after all, having a winner at 1/10 is more useful than having a 20/1 loser.
This is true, of course, but I am firmly with the value brigade because of one very important reason.
The very nature of football dictates that you cannot guarantee that any team is going to win a particular match, so being results-orientated is a mistake in my opinion.
I think that the best way to make money from football betting is to identify odds that are greater than the chances of the event actually happening.
If we tossed a coin for money, then as long as the coin toss was fair we would each stand a 50% chance of winning, or evens in fractional betting terms.
However, if you won the bet then you may be ahead by whatever your stake was, but there was no positive expectation in the bet.
This means that you cannot possibly make money replicating this situation over a large number of bets.
The heads and tails will even out and so will the winners and the losers and hence you make no money in the long term.
It is very difficult to know when a price is incorrect in your favour and this is why so few people are successful in football betting.
But if you can be attuned to the market then you can notice when hype drives the price in certain directions and value then clearly presents itself.
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